October 2010

They made the call – we call them out

Let’s have a little fun: Every spring,
numerous experts don their Nostradamus caps to make predictions for
the upcoming season. They wag tongues, start arguments … then
retreat into the Unaccountability Zone.

Their forecasts are always forgotten,
gradually erased by actual events.

Not this time.

For the fun of it, I preserved some
random prognosis made in February by a few of these town criers.
Let’s see how they made out; the first set of stats is the prediction
[with the actual final numbers in brackets].

BILL JAMES (IN HIS HANDBOOK 2010)

  • Josh Beckett: 15-9, 3.62 ERA [6-6,
    5.78]
  • Clay Buchholz: 10-8, 3.91 [17-7, 2.33]
  • Jon Lester: 13-10, 3.85 [19-9, 3.25]
  • Daisuke Matsuzaka: 12-10, 4.02 [9-6,
    4.69]
  • Tim Wakefield: 6-5, 4.03 [4-10, 5.34]

  • Francisco Rodriguez: 42 saves, 2.67
    [25, 2.20]
  • Johan Santana: 17-8, 3.08 [11-9,
    2.98]
  • John Maine: 9-9, 3.86 [1-3, 6.13]

  • David Wright: .302-23-99 [.283-29-103]
  • Carlos Beltran: .282-24-91 [.255-7-27]
  • Jose Reyes: .285-14-67, 57 steals
    [.282-11-54, 30]
  • Report card: Matsuzaka, Wright, Reyes – not bad. The rest – My tea leaves could’ve done better.

BILL CHUCK

  • AL postseason teams: Yankees, Rays,
    White Sox, Mariners.
  • NL postseason teams: Phillies, Braves,
    Cardinals, Rockies.

Batting average: .500 (must be noted
picked Rangers last in AL West).

ROB NEYER

  • AL postseason teams: Yankees, Red Sox,
    Twins, Rangers.
  • NL postseason teams: Phillies, Braves,
    Cardinals, Rockies.

Batting average: .750, excellent
(although, again, must be noted picked Giants-Padres No. 4-5 in NL
West).

Nothing personal, fellows. Just
remember you don’t voice your conspicuous opinions in a vacuum.

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