Day 3: Is it almost “shoe” time?

Buccos GM Neal Huntington maintained all along that the A.J. Burnett indecision hanging for months over his head did not have an impact on other things he might have been working on.

That might’ve been just posturing. If you are discussing potential deals with another team or a free agent, you certainly do not want to make them feel they would be a Plan B to Plan A.J.

At least one veteran Pirates player is convinced shoes are about to drop.

“Now that the A.J. thing has been cleared up, I’m pretty sure we’re going to see some moves to help us on the offensive side,” he said.

* * *

Pirates bench coach Jeff Banister has a perfect characterization of these early, repetitive days of Spring Training, before the bulk of position players report:

“These are the true Groundhog Days,” Banister says, with a nod to the Bill Murray movie, not Punxsutawney Phil.

* * *

Second baseman Neil Walker, in Florida since early January, frequently hangs out with Jeff Karstens, a Tampa resident. Karstens has had a very quiet free agency after missing all of 2013 with shoulder problems and is still recovering from the June 8 surgery to clean out his rotator cuff and labrum.

    “He won’t work out for teams until he feels completely healthy,” Walker said of his popular ex-teammate. “Jeff and [Joel] Hanrahan are in the same place. When they’re ready, I hope some teams pick them up; they can definitely help.”

    Hanrahan, of course, had his own surgery, the Tommy John elbow reconstruction job, nine games into his season with Boston, where the Bucs had sent their former closer in the five-player trade that included Mark Melancon.

    Day 2: No better time than “Now”

    The 2014 Pirates might have the most succinct — yet most meaningful — slogan of all time: “Now.”

    It hasn’t yet been officially adopted. But that could be on the way.

    A photo on the clubhouse bulletin board is of a watch with “Now” where you would normally find the dial, and the caption, “Most accurate watch ever.”

    And Buccos manager Clint Hurdle said prior to Friday’s second workout for pitchers and catchers, “The experience of last year, even losing the Division Series, is one of the levels you need to reach to go farther. That’s going to add value to everything we do. It’s about getting things done ‘Now.'”

    Put that on a tee-shirt, I’ll wear it.

    * * *

    Hurdle forever urges his players to “do more.” As in, “If you want to accomplish more, you have to do more.”

    But now there is less of him.

    The skipper has dropped a load of pounds and pants sizes over the winter. He won’t put a number on it, but the evidence is dramatic.

    With Expanded Replay, maybe the guy who tied for the Majors’ lead with six ejections last season figured he had to control his weight by means other than trotting out to argue plays.

    *   *   *

    An Apr. 26, 2013 article by MLB.com’s Adam Berry, titled “Fastball first: Pitching success by keeping it simple,” has a prominent place on the Pirates’ clubhouse bulletin board, with key passages highlighted in bright yellow.

    Day 1: WC, from Wild Card to Water Closet

    Francisco Liriano sprinted off one of Pirate City’s fields, frantically looking around.

    A security guard who correctly interpreted the left-hander’s panic pointed him toward the bathroom. The only bathroom among the four fields and bullpen of the Bucs’ Spring Training Complex.

    And welcome to the nightmare of the Pirates’ support staff, something keeping them up at nights. It is one of the unpleasant aspects of the Bucs’ emergency as a playoff team.

    Once camp is in full swing — position players report on Monday for Tuesday’s first full-squad workout — fans are expected to flock to Pirate City in record numbers.

    “On a typical day in the past, we’d have maybe 500,” said a staffer. “I think we’re going to see up to 1,500 daily now.”

    And there is still only that one bathroom, for the use of both players and the spectators who freely mingle in the quad among the four fields.

    Winning, they say, can create problems, but they are nice problems to have. This one does not sound like a nice problem.

    Yes, the 911 has gone out for Port-a-Potties.

    Bucs must – and can – meet A.J.’s price. Here’s how

    I think A.J. Burnett has a new conflict.

    At the beginning, it was between continuing mound time and more family time. But now it’s between getting paid his open-market value, or accepting a [significant] discount to help finish the job in Pittsburgh, a city he has truly come to embrace.

    And this is where Neal Huntington’s already-established creativity can make a reunion happen. The Pirates GM showed his ability to think outside the box with his dogged renegotiation of Francisco Liriano’s original deal after the left-hander had fractured his right arm last winter.

    Now Huntington has to huddle with Darek Braunecker, Burnett’s agent, and make it happen.

    This is how it could be done:

    Establish Burnett’s true value. At his performance level yet his age [37], say it’s $15 million, a reasonable starting point.

    Huntington then offers him $17 million — a $500,000 raise over his 2013 salary, just for good-faith.

    But — and this is where the creativity enters — make $10 million of that deferred. Contract deferments are quite common — particularly when team elders volunteer for them for the specific purpose of easing their team’s financial burden in the pursuit of titles.

    For someone obviously on the brink of retirement, what could be more appealing than guaranteed post-career income for a number of years? And with the increasing revenue stream from their share of MLB’s national TV contract, the Pirates could comfortable carry such an IOU for Burnett.

    That’s it. Do it.

    Let’s re-invent the wheel [new pitchers stats!]

    I’m not too crazy about the new ways of assessing performance in a game whose very charm is having remained unchanged since the Civil War (ours). Still prefer to watch and read about baseball with a Red Book, not a slide rule, by my side.

    But just because I don’t sing the Acronym Hymn doesn’t mean I don’t dig innovative statistics when appropriate. In fact, few people know (Bill Ladson, an old friend who now covers the Washington Nationals for us, is one) that 30 years ago I created what has become known as pitchers’ WHIP.

    While covering the California Angels for the long-defunct Los Angeles Herald Examiner, I called it ORA (Opponent Runners Average). Calculated it weekly Majors-wide and listed league leaders in our Sunday papers.

    I feel the stat muse tapping me on the shoulder again: Readers have increasingly implored me to stop citing and comparing starting pitchers based on their won-loss records, arguing their irrelevance given the way the modern game is run (pitch counts, bullpen relays, etc.).

    I agree. I also think the ERA — a nine-inning index — has become meaningless for starters who rarely go nine [in 2 percent of all games last season] and even more ridiculous for relievers, who might take a month to get there.

    So … here is what  I’m going to do in ’14 coverage of the Bucs:

    Starters’ “records” will reflect the times they pitch into the seventh inning or don’t get out of the fifth [in-between, there’s your new no-decision]. That’s deserving of a win or a loss; everything else — like run support or whether the bullpen has a bad day — is out of their control. Cited ERAs will simply be based on six innings (for example, allowing 3 earned runs in 6 innings would equate to a standard 4.50 ERA but for us it becomes 3.00).

    Relievers will have no ERAs. For a relief pitcher, nothing matters beyond runners who score while he is on the mound, inherited or his own. So relievers will be judged solely on RAVE [runs average; runners scoring divided by runners on base while in the game].

    Retracing 2013 for RAVEs is way too time consuming, so I’ll track those going forward.

    As for the ’13 Buccos rotation as seen through this new prism [actual W-L in parenthesis):

    • A.J. Burnett 17-5, 2.20 [10-11]
    • Francisco Liriano 12-6, 2.01 [16-8]
    • Charlie Morton 9-6, 2.15 [7-4]
    • Gerrit Cole 8-2, 2.14 [10-7]
    • Jeff Locke 8-10, 2.34 [10-7]
    Will this be a better reflection of a starter’s contribution? I believe so. For a random example, the Yankees’ Hiroki Kuroda had among starters’ lowest support at 3.2 runs per game but his actual 11-13 record translates to our 18-4. Quality still bears out: AL Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer [21-3) still scores 19-1 with us.
    So let’s see how this works out.

    Bucs may need A.J. more than they care to admit

    The Pirates continue to sit on A.J. Burnett’s fence, regarding his possible return to them as a luxury, taking the approach that he could put over the top a rotation that is already deep and solid.

    Just the other day, GM Neal Huntington reiterated on 93.7-The Fan that if Burnett decided to return to the Pirates, he would “of all things, have to figure out the best way to deal with a surplus of pitching.”

    However, is Burnett more indispensable than most — even fans who want him back primarily for his aura and clubhouse leadership — give him credit for?

    In his two seasons with the Bucs, Burnett was one of five contributing starting pitchers. While he was the model of consistency, the other four have all been half-season wonders. The stellar 2013 Pittsburgh debuts of Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano obviously tweak the numbers, but regard these cumulative records for the 2012-13 quintet:

    • Burnett 26-21 [with 33 team wins in his starts]
    • Jeff Locke 11-10 [16 team wins]
    • James McDonald 14-12 [18]
    • Wandy Rodriguez 11-8 [14]
    • Charlie Morton 9-10 [14].
    Pretty wide gap between A.J. and No. 2 (actually, No. 3, since No. 2 J-Mac is no longer on the team]. 

    Palmeiro v Bonds? A few Hall of Fame thoughts

    The disclosure of 17 MLB.com writers’ Hall of Fame ballots certainly signaled open season on those writers’ choices.

    Fine. That’s why Twitter was invented, as a venting mechanism. I choose to respond in this venue to shed the 140-character limit.

    Much of the criticism sent my way concerns my vote for Rafael Palmeiro, yet exclusion of Barry Bonds. Also, I got a lot of LOL’s for voting for Lee Smith. Those latter two points are somewhat ironic, since Bonds and Smith both got the exact same number of votes (6) from the MLB.com electorate.

    But … focusing on the Palmeiro-Bonds split … 

    No one, certainly none of the 600-odd BBWAA voters, truly knows who did or did not do the PED nasty. All we have to go on is a bunch of circumstantial evidence.

    From my perception, Palmeiro had an extremely consistent career, without significant spikes, 1990 through 2005.

    It is generally acknowledged — once again, only through anecdotal and third-party testimony — that, IF he juiced, Bonds did so out of jealousy upon seeing the adulation bestowed on Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa for their 1998 home-run battle.

    I don’t buy the argument that he was already a slam-dunk Hall of Fame player by then: He was a career .290 hitter with 411 homers; rightly or wrongly, a lot of players with similar credentials haven’t made it to Cooperstown. Fred McGriff [.284, 493 homers] got 21% of the votes last year; Andres Galarraga [.288, 399] fell off the ballot after one year. Sure, you can argue they were different players, without as many dimensions, but this is always where these things become subjective.

    Anyway, using 1998 as the line in Bonds’ sand: Before, he averaged 32 homers per 509 ABs a season, with that .290 average; after, it was 39 homers per 358 ABs, with a .316 average — all that starting with his age-35 season.

    I took all that into consideration in voting, which I take very seriously. Seriously enough to pay very close attention to everyone and everything involved, and keep an open mind about changing future votes if warranted.

    Moving past Lambo’s rough Winter League gig

    Neal Huntington, preferring to err on the side of caution, tends to minimize Winter League triumphs by pointing out the talent level in the offseason leagues is lower than it is in the Majors. So the Bucs’ GM now faces an intriguing paradox regarding the Pirates’ evolving first-base/right field situation.

    Does he now shrug off Andrew Lambo’s Winter League struggles, by somehow reasoning that he was up against a tough deal?

    You can’t really have it both ways, but Huntington may have to take that route at least to avoid seeming desperate as he continues to engage the Mets in trade talks involving Ike Davis.

    Lambo certainly did not strengthen his case with Lara in Venezuela. He had no homers in 27 games and 92 at-bats, while batting .228 with an OPS of .648. Lambo also fanned 28 times in those 92 at-bats.

    There’s a couple of ways for the Bucs to rationalize that performance: Lambo was distracted by trying to learn a new position, as he jump-started his transition to first base; and he did finish strong, batting .324 in the last 10 games after doing .172 in the first 17.

    Fatigue may have also been a factor in that overall showing. Between Double-A, Triple-A, the Pirates and Lara, Lambo put in 165 games and 562 at-bats in 2013, career highs.

    Does WL batting title put Polanco on faster track?

    A year ago, Starling Marte’s sensational performance in the Dominican Winter League lay the foundation for his solid first full big-league season. The Latin American offseason leagues are mega competitive and pressure packed, especially for native sons. Earning playoff MVP honors by batting .422 for champion Escogido pumped up Marte’s confidence, and he didn’t miss a beat with the Bucs (recall his .327 April average).

    Is Gregory Polanco now retracing those steps?

    Polanco played his final regular-season game Saturday, and ended it tied (with Moises Sierra) for the Dominican batting title with an average of .331. Closer looks at his Escogido resume are even more impressive: An OPS of .922, and only slightly more strikeouts [34] than walks [28] in 194 plate appearances.

    Did that showing speed up his clock? The Pirates have been adamant about keeping him cropped out of the 2014 picture. On a recent visit to the Dominican Republic, did GM Neal Huntington see anything to make him change his mind?

    Short answer: No.

    “We talk all the time about being big fans of winter ball — with the environment and intensity, it’s a great way to shorten the development curve for a young player,” Huntington told me. “At the same time, the one game I saw Polanco play, he was facing a pitcher throwing 80-83 miles. So it’s not always the best competition.

    “But,” Huntington was quick to add, “he looks great. He’s coming along very well.”

    He just does not figure to arrive earlier than projected. The Bucs are very good at sticking to timetables. In case you need a reminder, hitting .520 in a dozen Grapefruit League games in the spring of 2012 did not get Marte to Pittsburgh earlier than planned; rather, it got him sent to Minor League camp, before he could continue the persuasive show.

    Marte did check in late July. The Polanco precedent has been set.

    Pirates held hostage, Day No. 68

    Yes, this post’s headline is a reference to A.J. Burnett. Him sitting on the retirement fence has absolutely tied Neal Huntington’s hands — the GM’s denials to the contrary.

    Look, it’s pretty simple: While keeping a light on for Burnett, Huntington has not been able to compete for the slew of mid-rotation free agents who have signed modest contracts elsewhere. He couldn’t, for instance, spend the $8-$10 million under Burnett’s mattress on Scott Feldman or Jason Vargas.

    The Pirates, as Huntington often says, are “giving A.J. all the space he needs to make a big decision for him and his family.” Something else the Bucs have given A.J.: A deadline; but it isn’t believed to be too pressing, likely mid-January.

    Of course, the personable righty could blow it all up by signing, as has been rumored, with the Orioles. The attraction there is Camden Yards’ location within a half-hour of Burnett’s Monkton, Maryland home — family-time being such a huge factor in the decision he is facing.

    Would A.J. really return to the AL East, the baseball jungle from which he made his escape with the Bucs? As a Yankee in 2010-11, Burnett was 6-13 with a 6.00 ERA in that division; in 2012-13 with the Pirates, he had a 3.32 ERA and 14 wins within the NL Central.

    But there is also this: If one of the things that keeps Burnett on the mound is his desire for a better career coda, what better place to make a good last impression than the AL East?

    Clint Hurdle’s decision to take away his Division Series Game 5 ball, contrary to the perception the snub might alienate him from the Bucs, actually gives him more motivation to return and fix the image.

    In Burnett’s mind, nothing may need more fixing than the perception he was chased off by the too-rough AL East. Bet he’d like to set that straight.